Trend Projection and Seasonal Effects Analysis
Summary :Trend projection methods covering linear trend model, regression trend line equation (Ŷ = a + bx), normal equations for calculating a and b constants, properties of best fit trend line, solved examples for sugar factory and tourist arrivals data, seasonal effects measurement and seasonal index calculation (simple averages method, ratio-to-trend method, ratio-to-moving average method, link relatives method), deseasonalized values calculation, cyclical variations measurement, relative cyclical residual calculation with solved examples.